Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 19,354
2 New Jersey 18,116
3 Massachusetts 14,625
4 Rhode Island 14,150
5 District of Columbia 12,549
6 Connecticut 11,987
7 Delaware 9,863
8 Illinois 9,601
9 Maryland 8,937
10 Louisiana 8,701
11 Nebraska 7,415
12 Iowa 6,272
13 Pennsylvania 5,993
14 Michigan 5,851
15 South Dakota 5,690
16 Virginia 5,318
17 Indiana 5,300
18 Mississippi 5,292
19 Colorado 4,612
20 Minnesota 4,471
21 Georgia 4,309
22 Alabama 3,779
23 New Mexico 3,719
24 Kansas 3,467
25 North Dakota 3,448
26 New Hampshire 3,445
27 Tennessee 3,403
28 Wisconsin 3,186
29 Utah 3,127
30 Ohio 3,078
31 Washington 3,020
32 California 2,926
33 Nevada 2,824
34 North Carolina 2,800
35 Arizona 2,764
36 Florida 2,645
37 Arkansas 2,466
38 South Carolina 2,359
39 Texas 2,278
40 Kentucky 2,271
41 Missouri 2,203
42 Maine 1,747
43 Oklahoma 1,661
44 Idaho 1,627
45 Vermont 1,575
46 Wyoming 1,572
47 Puerto Rico 1,212
48 West Virginia 1,131
49 Oregon 1,019
50 Alaska 650
51 Montana 485
52 Hawaii 453

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Massachusetts 255
2 District of Columbia 150
3 Maryland 132
4 Delaware 126
5 Nebraska 119
6 Rhode Island 112
7 Virginia 111
8 Louisiana 110
9 Mississippi 107
10 Alabama 102
11 Illinois 101
12 Minnesota 99
13 Connecticut 91
14 North Carolina 83
15 Iowa 81
16 New Jersey 77
17 Utah 77
18 Arizona 75
19 Arkansas 73
20 California 72
21 South Carolina 65
22 Indiana 63
23 South Dakota 63
24 Michigan 61
25 Georgia 58
26 New York 58
27 Colorado 55
28 Tennessee 50
29 New Mexico 48
30 New Hampshire 47
31 Texas 46
32 North Dakota 45
33 Wisconsin 44
34 Pennsylvania 43
35 Ohio 40
36 Washington 39
37 Florida 36
38 Nevada 35
39 Kentucky 34
40 Kansas 31
41 Missouri 31
42 Maine 30
43 Puerto Rico 23
44 Idaho 19
45 Oklahoma 19
46 Alaska 18
47 Oregon 13
48 West Virginia 10
49 Wyoming 10
50 Montana 8
51 Vermont 4
52 Hawaii 0

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 1,530
2 New Jersey 1,319
3 Connecticut 1,113
4 Massachusetts 1,020
5 Rhode Island 679
6 District of Columbia 663
7 Louisiana 602
8 Michigan 553
9 Pennsylvania 435
10 Illinois 430
11 Maryland 422
12 Delaware 377
13 Indiana 318
14 Colorado 253
15 Mississippi 248
16 Georgia 193
17 Ohio 188
18 Minnesota 187
19 New Hampshire 180
20 Iowa 176
21 New Mexico 172
22 Virginia 163
23 Washington 148
24 Nevada 137
25 Alabama 131
26 Missouri 128
27 Arizona 126
28 Florida 114
29 California 108
30 Wisconsin 102
31 Kentucky 99
32 South Carolina 97
33 Nebraska 94
34 North Carolina 88
35 Vermont 88
36 Oklahoma 84
37 North Dakota 83
38 Kansas 74
39 South Dakota 70
40 Maine 66
41 Texas 58
42 Tennessee 52
43 Idaho 46
44 Arkansas 44
45 Puerto Rico 42
46 West Virginia 42
47 Oregon 36
48 Utah 35
49 Wyoming 29
50 Montana 15
51 Hawaii 12
52 Alaska 10

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Massachusetts 15
2 Connecticut 9
3 Rhode Island 8
4 New Jersey 7
5 Delaware 4
6 Maryland 4
7 District of Columbia 3
8 Georgia 3
9 Illinois 3
10 Iowa 3
11 Michigan 3
12 Minnesota 3
13 Mississippi 3
14 New York 3
15 Alabama 2
16 Louisiana 2
17 Missouri 2
18 New Mexico 2
19 Ohio 2
20 Pennsylvania 2
21 Arizona 1
22 California 1
23 Colorado 1
24 Indiana 1
25 Nebraska 1
26 New Hampshire 1
27 North Carolina 1
28 South Carolina 1
29 South Dakota 1
30 Virginia 1
31 Wisconsin 1
32 Wyoming 1
33 Alaska 0
34 Arkansas 0
35 Florida 0
36 Hawaii 0
37 Idaho 0
38 Kansas 0
39 Kentucky 0
40 Maine 0
41 Montana 0
42 Nevada 0
43 North Dakota 0
44 Oklahoma 0
45 Oregon 0
46 Puerto Rico 0
47 Tennessee 0
48 Texas 0
49 Utah 0
50 Vermont 0
51 Washington 0
52 West Virginia 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 123,361 1 99
Dakota Nebraska 83,941 2 99
Lincoln Arkansas 75,476 3 99
Nobles Minnesota 71,386 4 99
Lake Tennessee 59,008 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 7,948 257 91
Richland South Carolina 3,680 700 77
Pierce Washington 2,167 1090 65
Orange California 2,057 1136 63
York South Carolina 1,484 1423 54

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Terrell Georgia 3,048 1 99
Early Georgia 3,042 2 99
Hancock Georgia 2,956 3 99
Randolph Georgia 2,803 4 99
Essex New Jersey 2,086 5 99
Richland South Carolina 159 612 80
Davidson Tennessee 91 852 72
Pierce Washington 87 874 72
Orange California 46 1223 61
York South Carolina 28 1427 54

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons